A new study forecasts a lengthy global recession due to COVID19.
Atleast 80% of advanced nations including US and UK will see deep, long-lasting economic effects. China and others in East Asia may fare better given their manufacturing bases.
Nations that adopted less stringent lockdowns – Sweden, for example – will also suffer economic losses, due to spillovers from other countries. Turkey, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia, for example, will see atleast two years of severely low economic activity.
Researchers analyzed historical data to predict COVID19's long-term effects on global economies. Lockdowns, business closures, and social distancing have reduced and disrupted labour supply and productivity. Income loss from death, quarantines, and unemployment have reduced household consumptions.
Researchers studied 40 years worth of data - in particular - rare economic shocks - to predict economic losses suffered by in the pandemic's wake.
Original article:
No country ‘immune’ to COVID-19 economic shock, but Asian nations will bounce back faster
Original studies:
A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model