Football matches are becoming more predictable.
Researchers collected data from almost eighty eight thousand matches played over 26 years across 11 major European leagues. They fed this data into a computer program to try and predict if a team would win by looking at its past performance. It was right almost seventy five percent of the time.
The study shows that it has become easier to predict the results of football matches in Europe over time. It also found that stronger teams have become more successful while weaker teams have become less successful - it could be that stronger teams make more money, which helps them buy stronger players, and win more games. There also does not seem to be a home field advantage. In general, stronger teams win anyway, no matter where they play.
So what does this mean?
Stronger regulations around club incomes for one, and also around, expenditures and player salaries. The researchers also suggest introducing more effective caps.
Why?
Because a game that is easy to predict might not keeping bringing crowds to the stadium.
Original article:
The results of European football matches are becoming more predictable – new research
Original study:
Football is becoming more predictable; network analysis of 88 thousand matches in 11 major leagues